Country Level Economics: Policies, Institutions, and Macroeconomic Performance

This course examines macroeconomic performance in the short run and the long run based on the economy’s institutional and policy environment. The first module develops a model of macroeconomy in the short run when the price level has its own momentum and does not respond much to supply and demand forces. The model enables one to see how GDP, interest rate, and exchange rate are determined in the short run and how they respond to macroeconomic shocks and policies. The second module starts the analysis of long-run equilibrium by examining the foreign exchange market. It then connects the long-run outcome with expectations about the future trends in the exchange rate at each moment, which constitute a key driver of the spot exchange rate in the short run. The methodology developed for this purpose can be applied to expectations concerning other macroeconomic variables as well. Finally, the long-run foreign exchange model is employed to derive a number of important lessons for the long run trends in currency values and competitiveness of producers in various countries. The third module examines the drivers of aggregate output in the long run and the mechanisms of adjustment from the short run to the long run. The model provides insights about why some countries are much richer than others and why some economies grow faster than others over decades. The analysis also sheds light on why inflation varies across countries or over time in the same country. The model is employed to analyze the sources of macroeconomic instability and the roles of fiscal and monetary policies in stabilization or destabilization of the macroeconomy. The final module discusses the characteristics of desirable macroeconomic policies and the reasons why actual policies deviate from them. It connects these deviations to country characteristics that one needs to take into account when assessing a country’s long-term macroeconomic environment. The module ends with a discussion of the institutional conditions that help bring about better fiscal and monetary policies. At the end of this course, you will be able to: • Understand how the market for aggregate goods and services interacts with the money market to shape the macroeconomic equilibrium that determines income, interest rate, and exchange rate in the short run. • Understand the links between the short-run and long-run processes. • Assess the dynamic effects of macroeconomic policies and understand the roles of globalization, government policies, institutions, and expectations in macroeconomic outcomes.